Ruble remains strong ahead of OPEC meeting

Russian RubleAfter Trump’s victory at the United States Presidential Elections, the Greenback was unable to hold onto their profits made against Russian Ruble. The main reason behind this thing is the recovery in crude oil prices. It led to a fall in the currency pair USD/RUB to 64 from 66 prior to 2 weeks. It is believed that in the coming times with holidays around the corner, there would be a further decline in the prices of crude oil.

The oil market traders and analysts are of the opinion that the members of OPEC will be finalising a production cut when they will be meeting this week. The analysts are expecting that the production cut will be up to 1 million barrels. If such kind of thing happens, the crude oil prices will be somewhere $55 to $60 per barrel.

There will be additional revenue of $1 billion to Iraq after $1 rise in the prices of crude oil. This rise in prices will certainly benefit Russia which is pumping out oil at record levels.

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According to Central Bank of Russia, in the month of September 2016, there was a surplus trade of $7.38 billion compared to the market expectations of $6.9 billion. Similarly, according to a report submitted by Federal State Statistics Service, there was a decline of 5.4% in the jobless rate in the month of October 2016. This is according to the expectations of the analysts and 0.1% lower than the jobless reported posted during the same period last year.

Finally, as per the analysts, the market has fully priced in the looming rate hike by the Fed. Hence there will not be a great impact on the US dollar after the rate hike. With January not far away, there will be an uptrend seen in the Greenback and the market will start becoming nervous. If there is an increase in volatility, the US dollar will certainly be able to correct itself. So, if you are a trader, you can expect the currency pair USD/RUB to remain bearish in the coming weeks.

There is a decline in USD/RBD after it could not cross the level 65. There is an overbought scenario as indicated by the stochastic oscillator. So, it is likely that the aforementioned currency pair will descend quickly.

USD-RUB Pair - November 28th 2016

USD-RUB Pair – November 28th, 2016

As a trader, you can go short on this currency pair around 64.80. You can place a stop loss above 65.50 if you want to limit losses. As expected if the currency pair declined then you will be able to make a profit at 63.

If you want to make a profit from the declining USD/RUB, then as a binary trader you can buy one touch put option. The target level should not be less than 63.50 and the expiry period should be 3 weeks.


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